In the Bioenergy Systems Organization at GE Global Research – Rio de Janeiro (GRC-R), we research both new technologies and new applications for existing ones, whenever those have a potential fit to customer’s demands. We have a special eye on the South American market. Brazil plays an important role in the region’s economy. The country has an energy market that is quite different from the U.S., Europe, Asia, and other developing economies. Unique boundary conditions drive solutions tailored to suit local needs. I’d like to share with you how Brazilian electricity production distributes among various energy sources. I also intend mentioning expansion plans for power generation infrastructure in the region, as these impact key technologies and solutions being developed by GRC-R.
The Brazilian government, through its Ministry of Mines and Energy, Energy Research Office, maintains a Ten-Year Energy Expansion Plan. This is annually updated, always looking a decade ahead. It takes into account trends in local and global economies, projections for industrial activity, fuel availability, energy security and a number of other relevant variables that influence future electricity market. The expansion of power generation capacity is planned to fit projected electricity demand in ways that take advantage of existing resources while respecting environmental constraints. In early September 2014, the draft for the 2014-2023 period report was released. Key data shows 1) how installed power generation capacity distributes among the various energy sources; 2) the predicted picture for late 2023, and; 3) the expected average rate of power generation capacity increase.
Installed capacity in Brazil today equals 125 GW. This is expected to grow to about 200 GW by late 2023. On average, 7.1 GW of new electrical power generating capacity is expected to be put in place annually over the next decade. Currently 83% of the Brazilian power generation is based on renewables. Predictions indicate that this level will be maintained in the future. This contrasts, for example, with the European Union, which is working very hard to get 20% of its energy from renewable sources by 2020.
Renewable power generation – Hydro, wind and solar
Hydropower accounts for about 75% of existing power generation capacity in Brazil, and is expected to grow at a rate of 3.3 GW/year over the next ten years. The new hydro capacity the country will put in place from now until the end of 2023 approximately equals the installed power of Hydro-Québec. Large plants will come into operation in the north of Brazil. Special attention is being given to the Belo Monte hydropower plant which, when fully operational, will have 11 GW installed capacity – nearly six times the power of the Hoover Dam´s station. Belo Monte is expected to start operating by 2016. A number of other smaller hydro power plants, of installed capacity varying from 50 to 8,000 MW, also are scheduled to enter service before 2023.
According to Brazilian legislation, a hydro of less than 50 MW can be classified as a small renewable power plant and, because of that, may be eligible for incentives to connect to the grid. This is also the case for wind and solar. During the past few years the competitiveness between small hydro and wind was reduced for several reasons, including increased complexities for obtaining environmental permits. While containing water streams has benefits of regulating flow and preventing floods, it may also have negative impacts on wildlife such as creating difficulties for fish migration. Wind has a small contribution today but its share is expected to grow significantly over the next decade (2 GW/year). Projections show that centralized solar power generation will also appear in the mix. Thanks to the large energy accumulation capacity of the existing hydro infrastructure, issues of grid disturbances because of wind and solar power oscillations are not expected. Solutions that pursue damping wind and solar power oscillations, like pumped storage, appear to have little eco in the region.
Converting electricity from sugarcane biomass
Biomass, especially sugarcane bagasse, is used as fuel for thermal power generation. This energy source is highly seasonal as it is coupled to sugarcane harvest and sugar and ethanol production. Nonetheless, during those periods, input power to the grid is fairly uniform. The expected organic growth of biomass-based electrical power generating capacity, 410 MW/year, is tightly linked to projected sugar and ethanol demands.
The possible introduction of new technologies to the sugar and ethanol industry, if broadly adopted, have the potential to significantly impact existing predictions. There is a trend in this sector to produce bio-digested methane from the sugar and ethanol processing residues. The sugar and ethanol industry may possibly boost its electricity surplus by converting waste into gaseous biofuels for distributed power production. The state of São Paulo also recently enacted legislation making it compulsory to add a percentage of bio-based methane to the fossil natural gas consumed in the region. If this drives the selling of bio-methane, it may open a more economically attractive alternative to additional electricity generation. Typically there is little gas infrastructure in the rural environment, so moving the bio-methane from sugar and ethanol mills to gas pipelines, could prove challenging.
Cellulosic ethanol projects are now entering a phase of commercial operation. In those, the fibrous leftovers from the industry (bagasse and straw) are used as raw material for the increased production of biofuel. It’s fair to imagine that if this biomass is used to increase ethanol production, less would be left to serve as fuel for electricity production. There are multiple new pathways for the Brazilian sugar and ethanol industry to pursue. In the long run those can have significant influence on the country’s biomass-based electricity production.
Power generation with non-renewables
Among non-renewables, gas based power generation capacity is expected to grow at a rate of about one GW/year. Brazilian oil and gas reserves increased significantly over the past few years, especially because of the discovery of new offshore fields in the southeast coast of the country. It will take some years before those fields actually start producing. In the meantime, LNG and piped gas imports from other South American countries will be required. Gas prices in Brazil generally are not as attractive as they are in other regions, especially those that benefit from shale gas. Coal based power production capacity is expected to remain constant. Discrete reductions on diesel and heavy fuel oil are expected (~40 MW/year reduction).
One new 1.4 GW nuclear power plant, already in construction, is expected to enter service in 2015. Brazil is among the countries with larger uranium reserves, which makes for economically attractive mining. Despite this, nuclear fuel production in Brazil is limited to amounts required for the operation of its relatively small thermonuclear infrastructure. Today only part of the fuel processing is performed in the country. Yellow cake is sent to Canada and France for intermediate steps in the fuel production process. Plans are to have four additional nuclear power facilities built in the longer term. Those would create sufficient demand to enable the country to carry out uranium enrichment, for peaceful power generation, entirely within its borders. Despite generating power with no greenhouse gas emissions, nuclear power is often subjected to community and environmental criticism and safety concerns. Environmentalists assert that developing other energy sources – even those with as yet unexplored renewable potentials – would be a more cost effective alternative to nuclear.
Fueling solutions to solve customer problems
With so many energy sources currently existing and on the horizon, my GRC-R colleagues and I dedicate our time to pursuing technologies that will be both highly reliable and very energy efficient. We also need to provide innovative solutions that are cost effective and bring value as they solve our customer’s toughest problems.
Helping shape the future is not an easy undertaking. Revolutionizing in today’s world of faster, stronger, smarter and cheaper requires bright minds, innovative thinking and humility to constantly change and adapt. GRC-R is up to this multifaceted endeavor thanks to our collaborations with colleagues at our many Global Research Center sites. Working with this world-class team definitively inspires through creativity. Knowing that we also have our fingerprints on the next big thing being developed is rewarding. We relish the challenge of powering a new, outstanding, era that will define the industry and help support people, businesses and the global economy.
To learn more about the Brazilian Energy Expansion Plan check out the links below. Most of the material is in Portuguese but English summaries are also available.
http://www.epe.gov.br/Estudos/Documents/Informe%20EPE%20-%20PDE%202023.pdf
http://www.epe.gov.br/Estudos/Documents/PDE2023_ConsultaPublica.pdf
http://www.epe.gov.br/pdee/forms/epeestudo.aspx
0 Comments